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Oscar Playoffs: The Golden Globes

1/10/03: The Predictions (updated 1/19 with winners)

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Man, time flies when you're taking classes. All I know is, I was watching my beloved Dateline NBC and suddenly I saw an ad for the Golden Globes ceremony, which is like, what, next weekend? Crap. Gonna need to make some predictions. Man, this is a hard year, though. I'm going to do the best I can, but these are pretty wussy predictions. And bear in mind that what happens at the Globes--and who rallies afterwards--is going to have a lot of bearing on Oscar voters, particularly since the Oscar ballots just went out today (1/10).

Best Director

Stephen Daldry, The Hours
Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings:
     The Two Towers
Spike Jonze, Adaptation
Rob Marshall, Chicago
Alexander Payne, About Schmidt
Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York

Best Motion Picture (Drama)

About Schmidt
Gangs of New York
The Hours
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
The Pianist

Best Actress (Drama)
Salma Hayek, Frida
Nicole Kidman, The Hours
Diane Lane, Unfaithful
Julianne Moore, Far from Heaven
Meryl Streep, The Hours

Best Actor (Drama)

Adrien Brody, The Pianist
Michael Caine, The Quiet American
Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York
Leonardo DiCaprio, Catch Me If You Can
Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt

Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
About a Boy
My Big Fat Greek Wedding
Nicholas Nickleby

Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)

Maggie Gyllenhaal, Secretary
Goldie Hawn, The Banger Sisters
Nia Vardalos, My Big Fat Greek Wedding
Renee Zellweger, Chicago
Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago

Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)

Nicolas Cage, Adaptation
Kieran Culkin, Igby Goes Down
Richard Gere, Chicago
Hugh Grant, About a Boy
Adam Sandler, Punch-Drunk Love

Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates, About Schmidt
Cameron Diaz, Gangs of New York
Queen Latifah, Chicago
Susan Sarandon, Igby Goes Down
Meryl Streep, Adaptation

Best Supporting Actor
Chris Cooper, Adaptation
Ed Harris, The Hours
Paul Newman, Road to Perdition
Dennis Quaid, Far from Heaven
John C. Reilly, Chicago

Best Foreign-Language Film

Balzac and the Little Chinese Seamstress
City of God
The Crime of Father Amaro
     (El Crimen del Padre Amaro)
Nowhere in Africa
Talk to Her

Best Screenplay
(note: the Globes do not distinguish between
"Adapted" and "Original" as the Oscars do)

Bill Condon, Chicago
David Hare, The Hours
Todd Haynes, Far from Heaven
Charlie Kaufman and Donald Kaufman
     (hee!), Adaptation
Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor,
     About Schmidt

Best Score

Elmer Bernstein, Far from Heaven
Terence Blanchard, 25th Hour
Peter Gabriel, Rabbit-Proof Fence
Philip Glass, The Hours
Elliot Goldenthal, Frida

Best Original Song

"Die Another Day," Die Another Day
"Father and Daughter," The Wild
     Thornberrys Movie (Paul Simon)
"The Hands That Built America,"
     Gangs of New York (U2)

"Here I Am," Spirit: Stallion of the
      Cimarron (Bryan Adams)
"Lose Yourself," 8 Mile (Eminem)

Who won last year? And how did the Globes com-pare to the Oscars?

Beautiful Mind won both Best Picture at the Oscars and Best Drama at the Globes (Moulin Rouge took Musical/Comedy).
Lead actors: Neither Russell Crowe nor Sissy Spacek, Globe winners, wound up with the Oscar. (Gene Hackman and Nicole Kidman won for Mus/Com leads--still off the mark.)
Supporting Actors: Two for two for the Globes--Jim Broadbent and Jennifer Connelly won both.
Director: Wildly off with Robert Altman (Ron How-ard took the Oscar).
Screenplay: Another correct hit with Beautiful Mind (Best Adapted at the Oscars).
Best Song: A Sting song from Kate & Leopold--the Randy Newman/Monsters Inc. song that won the Oscar wasn't even nominated.
Original Score: Moulin Rouge won the Globe, but Fellowship of the Ring took the Oscar.
Foreign Film: Here again, a match with No Man's Land.

What was Cleolinda's batting average predicting the Globes
last year?
I missed Best Drama, Best Sup. Actor, Foreign Film, Director, Screenplay, and Song. To be fair, though, we were all surprised by Song...
Cleo: You know it is not a good sign when you have no damn clue on the very first category. Seriously, I got nothin'. I agree with a lot of critics that next year is more likely Peter Jackson's year, and my own thought is that GONY hasn't done quite as well as it could have. I'd say it's going to come down between Daldry and Marshall; who has the edge depends on how strong a showing The Hours puts forth in other categories. I love Spike Jonze, but I'm feeling more heat for his actors at this point.

Mr. Typo: I have to go with
Rob Marshall here.  Not only because Chicago is coming off of a massive media push, but the format of film seemed to let this Broad-way director do what he never could do on stage.  Marshall plays with camera angles, quick costume and mood changes, not to mention an incredible cast to really sell this one.

Cleo: Gahhhh....I think it's going to come down between
The Hours and... (pointing finger blindly)... Two Towers, with About Schmidt as the spoiler. (Dude, my choices rhyme. I am officially wigged out.)

Mr. Typo: I don't think The Two Towers has a chance for this one -- not that it wasn't good, but it's the middle sibling: didn't really have a good beginning or end....wait till next year.  My pick is
About Schmidt.

Julianne Moore has been the clear frontrunner so far, although Kidman seems to be an extremely strong second. (Remember, also, that the Oscar practically had Sissy Spacek's name engraved on it right up until the moment Halle Berry won.)

Mr. Typo: I almost chose Salma Hayek for her portrayal of a unibrow surrounded by an artist, but I'm instituting a rule that showing boobies doesn't give you a Golden Globe.  Oscars, maybe...but the Golden Globes are respectable, dammit!  This rules out Diane Lane, too.  So I'll say
Nicole Kidman, for her portrayal of a nose surrounded by a writer.

Jack Nicholson is a safe guess, since I've been hearing about him in this damn movie since last March (!), though Day-Lewis's role is far showier; he's a strong second. This is going to sound like wacky reasoning, but--I almost feel like the Hollywood Foreign Press Association might not think Day-Lewis would appreciate the award (he's notoriously reclusive and even now threatening to quit acting). Something to think about.

Mr. Typo:
Jack Nicholson has one so many of these awards that he's starting to trade them to street vendors for hot dogs.  Well, get your mustard ready, comes another.

Chicago. It's red-hot at the moment, even being ban-died about as a Best Picture frontrunner. This is the one choice I feel any confidence about (knock on wood).

Mr. Typo: Yeah,
Chicago...  If the Big Fat Greek movie wins, I'll rue for the state of the foreign press.  Be respectable, dammit!

Cleo: Hmm. I'm thinking this is
Renee Zellweger's award to lose at this point--she's more of a critical darling than Zeta-Jones. Nia Vardalos would be the spoiler, although keep an eye on Gyllenhaal--the Globes are famous for springing surprise awards on up-and-comers, although you primarily see this in the TV awards. 

Mr. Typo: I'm gonna go WAY out on a limb here and say
Renee Zellweger. Maggie Gyllenhal is ruled out due to my aforementioned boobies rule, Goldie Hawn is a putz (although Sissy Spacek won it last year), and the other two are either too Greek or too married to Michael Douglas.

Cleo: I'm less sure about this one. Friend of Digest Valerie says that
Richard Gere was excellent; I'm seeing Chicago this weekend, so we'll have to see. I would think that Nicolas Cage would be another strong shot, with Hugh Grant, perhaps, coming in behind him. I did see Punch-Drunk Love, and Sandler does quite a job in the movie, but I'm surprised that he actually landed the nomination at all after the movie's buzz cooled off.

Mr. Typo: Hugh Grant SHOULD probably win, but I'll say
Nicolas Cage. Richard Gere is probably the best choice as he seemed to carry Chicago, but you can't bet against one guy playing TWO roles in the same movie.  That's golden.

Meryl Streep. She turned in two strong performances this year, but Adaptation is the one that may have more heat behind it. Spoiler: Queen Latifah or Kathy Bates.

Mr. Typo: Another surprise...
Queen Latifah. In my best effort not to seem TOO gay, she was fantabulous!  Thankfully, yet horribly, Kathy Bates is ruled out....yeah, sorry kids, I'm getting the same image too.

Cleo: This is
Chris Cooper's award to lose, and if he does, it'll go to Dennis Quaid, barring some sort of mad Chicago sweep. I don't know; it's just a hunch.

Mr. Typo:
John C. Reilly. He had a small, understated role...but played it perfectly.  Plus, he's been in every movie made this year.  That should count for something, right?

Cleo: I still cannot believe that Spain did not submit
Talk to Her as its official Foreign Film selection at the Oscars. This is the highest-profile movie of the lot, and it's actually turned up on several English-speaking top 10 lists.

Mr. Typo: As I haven't seen any of these, barring a trailer for the pathetic-looking El Crimen del Padre Amaro, let's say
Nowhere in Africa.

Cleo: Gahhhhhhh, this is tough. I'm going with the idea here that this award will mirror one of the Best Motion Picture awards--meaning that
Chicago and The Hours have strong shots--but damn, this is an extremely overqualified bunch here.

Mr. Typo: I believe the
Kaufman duo will take this one to the house for it's originality and meta-ness...although I thought the same thing about Memento last year.

Peter Gabriel? I have no idea. This is just based on Sting's win last year--it seems that the FPA likes brand-name popular musicians.

Mr. Typo:
Elmer's about time.  Peter Gabriel should be officially blacklisted due to his role in the Tarzan tragedy of a few years back.

Cleo: I swear, Mr. Typo and I are going to move to China if "Die Another Day" wins. And I shudder as I type that, because I seem to remember Madonna actually winning a Globe for Evita. (Updated to add: Criminy, people,
she did. Song [which went to the songwriters] and Actress.] Be afraid.) This is the rare category this year that's difficult because it's mediocre. U2? I have no idea.

Mr. Typo: Well I won't go as far as moving to China, but I will write an angry letter if Madonna is picked.  Just remember the saying: "Just because she's a slut doesn't mean she knows music."  I'll pick
Paul Simon because everybody likes him.