the Oscars: the morning after


Previous columns
2/22: The Case of ILM
People's Choice Awards, Broadcast Film Critics Awards
AFI Awards
Ah. It's time for Oscar heartbreak again. It's happened to me before: 1992-93, the year Howards End lost. 1997-98, when L.A. Confidential lost. Oh, and this year. Which kills me, because I had my heart set on not one but two Best Pictures: Moulin Rouge and Lord of the Rings. It's either a recipe for Oscar heartbreak or a means of cutting your losses, take it as you will: someone's got to lose either way.

Or both ways. Sorry, I'm just a little bitter. It's okay; My Heart Will Go On. I suppose.

In case you're curious, here's what happened with the Oscar Pool. Yahoo graciously--finally--decided to score it. I came up with 14--would have been 15, if I had remembered to change my stupid Costume pick after I wrote about it in the column (see below; or see
original column for full text of predictions). I would have had several more, if I hadn't been so superstitious as to put LOTR for Picture and Screenplay just out of sheer hope when I knew Beautiful Mind would win both, and Memento when I knew Gosford Park was the frontrunner. For comparison,'s Sasha Stone got 13, as did our next highest competitor--since I, as editor, don't count in terms of who "won"--Mr. Typo. Astonishingly, Typo didn't get Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Picture, or Director right, but got enough in the smaller categories to pull ahead of everyone else, succeeding where I failed, frequently.

Best Picture: Oh, Lord. It's pretty much accepted that Beautiful Mind is the front-runner at this point. [But] I'm going to have to agree with Turan on this one, who said, "So, in direct contradiction to one of my own rules, I'm going to abandon the obvious favorite and pick Lord of the Rings because I have a personal preference for it. If I'm destined to go down with a ship, this one seems to suit the occasion."
Oh, I went down, all right.

Best Actor (and Actress). I'm going to cut my losses and put both Berry and Washington on my picks list. You know why? Because here's what I think will actually happen: the winners will either be Berry and Crowe, or Washington and Spacek. I don't know why.
Well, it's a good thing I did put both Berry and Washington, because even to my surprise, they both won. 

Best Supporting Actor: Sir Ian McKellen. Next?
Oh, Lord. Jim Broadbent pulled a surprise (but deserved) win--we'd all thought that if anyone beat McKellen it'd be Kingsley. Surprise!

Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Connelly is the front-runner, my prediction (again: lately, she's won everything), but also my personal choice.
Whew. At least I got that one right.

Best Foreign Language Film:
Easy. Amelie. No Man's Land is the potential spoiler in this race, but...
Sigh. No Man's Land it is.

Best Animated Film:
Shrek, by a mile.
Also right on that one.

Best Original Screenplay: Memento should win, by all that is sane in the universe, although EW, for example, says Gosford Park will squeak past on its overall strength and visibility.
Yeah, pretty much. Minus one for me.

Best Adapted Screenplay: I have a horrible feeling, however, that Beautiful Mind will win this one. On my picks, however, you will see Lord of the Rings, because I could not physically force myself to uncheck that box.

Best Original Song: I had Sting right until this red-hot moment, but as I'm sitting here thinking about it--the year's so mediocre, why not give it to Randy Newman for having lost all those other times before? It could happen.
Whoa. Even I'm shocked that I called that one.

Original Score: From what I'm reading, the smart money seems to be on Lord of the Rings. Yes. Yes, it was.

Best Art Direction: So, to break a tie between equal competitors, I'm predicting Lord of the Rings over Moulin Rouge's soundstages.
Or, you know, the other way around. Whatever.

Best Costume Design:
Again, I don't choose between them willingly. But I predict Moulin Rouge. Well, damn. I was right, but on my picks, I have "LOTR" still listed.

Best Makeup: Are you kidding me? Old age makeup and whore makeup next to old-age, foot, ear, full-face and sometimes even full-body prosthetics for dozens, if not hundreds, of actors? Lord of the Rings. Testify!

Best Cinematography: Andrew Lesnie for Lord of the Rings all the way. Check.

Best Film Editing: Memento. As EW puts it, "Memento didn't get this nomination by accident." Um, yeah, it did. Black Hawk Down wins.

Best Sound and Best Sound Editing: However, they may want to throw Black Hawk Down a bone, too. As for Best Sound Editing....  This really, really pains me, but Pearl Harbor's going to win this one. Again, that's what happened.

Best Visual Effects: Lord of the Rings it is, then. Check.

Quickly, and for no other reason than that I heard they were front-runners:
Best Animated Short Film: For the Birds
Best Live Action Short Film: the accountant


Best Documentary Feature: Promises
Best Documentary Short: Artists and Orphans: A True Drama

Entertainment Weekly! Thou hast forsaken me! Dude, you burned me in the pool--Thoth and Murder on a Sunday won, you bastards!

Oh, and the bonus question was, "How many minutes will it run over?" I put 16. Everyone, as far as I could tell, was wrong--it was
fifty-three (53) minutes over.
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