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| Oscar Playoffs: The Golden Globes 1/23/03: The Predictions (updated with AngelDust/Sister Girl's predictions) Inky's predictions — Brassy's predictions Send this page to a friend |
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| As far as I can tell, after roughly 12 or 13 years of following the awards season, I would boil the difference between the Oscars and the Globes as simply this: the Posterity Principle vs. the Famewhore Principle. Academy voters tend to go for what they think will look like a good choice years from now, as in, “We can’t vote Moulin Rouge into a group that includes this, that, and the other!” Granted, what they think is a “good choice” now may look ridiculous in six months, and they do have weak spots (Supporting Actress starlets, maudlin sentiment, Roberto Benigni). The Globes, on the other hand, are notable for being loose enough to call some pretty deserving winners… and coast some people in on fame alone. When you say, “There’s a big historical epic with Jude Law, Nicole Kidman, and Renée Zellweger,” you can see why Cold Mountain might take on a different weight than it does at other award shows. Update: AngelDust (Sister Girl, if you read my Livejournal) has added her top two picks in each category as well. Sidebar: This year, the Oscar nomination ballots had to be in before the Globe winners were announced. This may affect the influence the Globes have this year (see sidebar), although certainly the winners could still affect the next round of voting. But if you do want to compare the last three years, you see this pattern: The Best Picture each time won a similar Globe award. The directors and best actors always differed; the best actresses and screenplays were pretty similar, and the supporting actors were spot-on three years in a row. Keep that in mind--and the different voting circumstances--this year. Best Motion Picture – Drama Cold Mountain The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World Mystic River Seabiscuit Traditionally the HFPA just doesn’t “get” LOTR, but the pileup of the trilogy as a whole may push it over—Return of the King has won over critics’ groups in the last few weeks that I never thought it would. For a while now, though, I’ve thought that Cold Mountain was Golden Globe catnip. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cold Mountain was a spoiler. Just remember I said that. Contrary to Sasha at Oscar Watch, I don’t believe that the HPFA would touch Mystic River with a ten-foot pole—too depressing. On the other hand, Sasha knows what she's talking about, and I... probably don't. Last year I chose: The Hours. Winner: The Hours. AngelDust says: 1. Return of the King. 2. Mystic River. Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama Cate Blanchett Veronica Guerin Nicole Kidman Cold Mountain Scarlett Johansson Girl with a Pearl Earring Charlize Theron Monster Uma Thurman Kill Bill – Vol. 1 Evan Rachel Wood Thirteen Charlize Theron is a glamour girl and the anointed front-runner. And she deserves it. Kidman might snaffle it through sheer razzle-dazzle, but if Theron doesn’t win, that thump you hear will be me falling out of my chair. Last year I chose: "Julianne Moore, with Nicole Kidman as an extremely strong second." Winner: Nicole Kidman. AngelDust says: 1. Charlize Theron. 2 Scarlett Johansson. Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama Russell Crowe Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World Tom Cruise The Last Samurai Ben Kingsley House of Sand and Fog Jude Law Cold Mountain Sean Penn Mystic River Like Theron, Sean Penn is the clear front-runner. On the other hand, he’s largely regarded as a troublemaker. If he can keep his mouth shut about Iraq for another month, I think he could take the Oscar. But the Globe… I don’t know that the Globes have as much affection for him as they have for, say, Tom Cruise or even Jude Law. I think that, due to the whims of the HFPA, this one’s more open than it looks. Last year I chose: Jack Nicholson. Winner: Jack Nicholson. AngelDust says: 1. Tom Cruise. 2. Jude Law. Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy Bend It Like Beckham Big Fish Finding Nemo Lost in Translation Love Actually I could see any of these winning, but really, Finding Nemo was a huge success. I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t win. Last year I chose: Chicago. Winner: Chicago. AngelDust says: 1. Finding Nemo. 2. Lost in Translation. Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy Jamie Lee Curtis Freaky Friday Scarlett Johansson Lost In Translation Diane Keaton Something’s Gotta Give Diane Lane Under the Tuscan Sun Helen Mirren Calendar Girls Scarlett Johansson. I can’t see them giving it anyone else, although Sasha says Diane Keaton. I would cross Curtis, Mirren, and Lane off immediately—good performances in good movies, I’m sure, but none of those movies or performances has had the weight that Lost in Translation has had this season. Something’s Gotta Give has had an underwhelming reception, and Johansson’s got the “young starlet” angle working for her. Despite the fact that she will probably get up and make a pretentious speech, the way she did in Venice... Last year I chose: Renée Zellweger. Winner: Renée Zellweger. AngelDust says: 1. Scarlett Johansson. 2. Diane Keaton. Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy Jack Black School of Rock Johnny Depp Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl Bill Murray Lost in Translation Jack Nicholson Something’s Gotta Give Billy Bob Thornton Bad Santa I can’t imagine anyone else winning. People love this movie, they love this character, and they love Johnny Depp. Thornton, Black, and Nicholson don’t have much of a shot. Bill Murray does from the sheer strength of his performance and the film itself. Murray is the Posterity Principle. Depp is the Famewhore Principle. Depp wins. Last year I chose: Richard Gere. Winner: Richard Gere. AngelDust says: 1. Johnny Depp. 2. Bill Murray. Best Foreign Language Film The Barbarian Invasions (Canada) Good Bye, Lenin (Germany) Monsieur Ibrahim (France) Osama (Afghanistan) The Return (Russia) I have no idea. The two I hear mentioned most frequently are The Barbarian Invasions and Good Bye, Lenin. Give me half a point if Lenin wins. Last year I chose: Talk to Her. Winner: Talk to Her. (In all fairness, I think this was one of the easiest categories I've ever had to call. Normally I can't call foreign films.) AngelDust says: 1. Good Bye, Lenin. 2. The Barbarian Invasions. Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture Maria Bello The Cooler Patricia Clarkson Pieces of April Hope Davis American Splendor Holly Hunter Thirteen Renée Zellweger Cold Mountain The Famewhore Principle, plus the fact that Zellweger’s the only performance anyone has really talked about. They might give it to Holly Hunter. Patricia Clarkson was nominated twice at the SAG awards, which says a lot to me about the Oscars, but I don’t see the Globes appreciating her as much. Last year I chose: Meryl Streep. Winner: Meryl Streep. AngelDust says: 1. Renée Zellweger. 2. Maria Bello. Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture Alec Baldwin The Cooler Albert Finney Big Fish William H. Macy Seabiscuit Tim Robbins Mystic River Peter Sarsgaard Shattered Glass Ken Watanabe The Last Samurai Robbins is simply the strongest name on the list—both the most famous (no? Well, where have you seen Alec Baldwin lately?) and the most lauded performance. The HFPA can also pat itself on the back for giving something to Mystic River. Last year I chose: Chris Cooper. Winner: Chris Cooper. AngelDust says: 1. Tim Robbins. 2. Alec Baldwin. Best Director - Motion Picture Sofia Coppola Lost in Translation Clint Eastwood Mystic River Peter Jackson The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King Anthony Minghella Cold Mountain Peter Weir Master And Commander: The Far Side of the World If Peter Jackson doesn’t win this—and I mention this purely as an objective observer—there will be riots in the streets. Last year I chose: Rob Marshall/Stephen Daldry. Winner: Martin Scorsese. AngelDust says: 1. Peter Jackson. 2. Sofia Coppola. Best Screenplay - Motion Picture Sofia Coppola Lost in Translation Richard Curtis Love Actually Brian Helgeland Mystic River Anthony Minghella Cold Mountain Jim Sheridan & Naomi Sheridan & Kirsten Sheridan In America All good, and I could see any of them winning. In fact, I keep wavering on this one. Sasha says that In America has a very good shot, and it probably does, but… I keep thinking they’ll go for a big name like Mystic River. Maybe Mystic River because, if they vote they way I think they will, they feel guilty. I don’t know. Last year I chose: Chicago/The Hours. Winner: About Schmidt. AngelDust says: 1. Sofia Coppola. 2. Richard Curtis. Best Original Score - Motion Picture Alexandre Desplat Girl with a Pearl Earring Danny Elfman Big Fish Howard Shore The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King Gabriel Yared Cold Mountain Hans Zimmer The Last Samurai Amazing score, juggernaut contender. Last year I chose: Peter Gabriel, Rabbit-Proof Fence ("I have no idea"). Winner: Elliot Goldenthal, Frida. AngelDust says: 1. Howard Shore. 2. Danny Elfman. Best Original Song - Motion Picture “The Heart Of Every Girl” – Mona Lisa Smile Music By: Elton John Lyrics By: Bernie Taupin “Into The West”—The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King Music & Lyrics By: Howard Shore, Fran Walsh, Annie Lennox “Man Of The Hour”—Big Fish Music & Lyrics By: Eddie Vedder “Time Enough For Tears”—In America Music & Lyrics By: Bono, Gavin Friday And Maurice Seezer “You Will Be My Ain True Love”—Cold Mountain Music & Lyrics By: Sting I have no idea. Sting is a Globe favorite, but I could definitely see them going for Whatever Song The Big Movie Had. Give me half a point if ROTK takes it. Last year I chose: "The Hands That Built America," U2. Winner: U2. AngelDust says: 1. Sting. 2. Annie Lennox. Stay tuned on Sunday for the infamous Daily Digest Play-by-Play! |
| Globes / Oscars 2001-2003 Best Drama The Hours / ---------- B. Mind / B. Mind (Best Picture) Gladiator / Gladiator (Best Picture) Best Comedy Chicago / Chicago (Best Picture) Moulin Rouge / ---------- Almost Famous / ---------- Best Director Martin Scorsese / Roman Polanski Robert Altman / Ron Howard Ang Lee / Steven Soderbergh Best Actor (Drama) Jack Nicholson / Adrien Brody Russell Crowe / Denzel Washington Tom Hanks / Russell Crowe Best Actor (Comedy) Richard Gere / ---------- Gene Hackman / ---------- George Clooney / ---------- Best Actress (Drama) Nicole Kidman / Nicole Kidman Sissy Spacek / Halle Berry Julia Roberts / Julia Roberts Best Actress (Comedy) Renée Zellweger / ---------- Nicole Kidman / ---------- Renée Zellweger / ---------- Best S. Actor Chris Cooper / Chris Cooper Jim Broadbent / Jim Broadbent Benicio Del Toro / Benicio Del Toro Best S. Actress Meryl Streep / C. Zeta-Jones Jennifer Connelly / Jennifer Connelly Kate Hudson / Marcia Gay Harden Best Screenplay About Schmidt / Talk to Her, Pianist B. Mind / Gosford, B. Mind Traffic / Almost Famous, Traffic Best Foreign Language Film Talk to Her* / Nowhere in Africa No Man's Land / No Man's Land Crouching Tiger / Crouching Tiger Best Score Frida / Frida Moulin Rouge / FOTR Gladiator / Crouching Tiger Best Song U2 / Eminem Sting / Randy Newman Bob Dylan / Bob Dylan * Was not submitted in the category. Was strong enough to win Best Screenplay, and probably would have won Foreign Film. |
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