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Oscar Playoffs: The Golden Globes

1/23/03: The Predictions (updated with AngelDust/Sister Girl's predictions)
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As far as I can tell, after roughly 12 or 13 years of following the awards season, I would boil the difference between the Oscars and the Globes as simply this: the Posterity Principle vs. the Famewhore Principle. Academy voters tend to go for what they think will look like a good choice years from now, as in, “We can’t vote Moulin Rouge into a group that includes this, that, and the other!” Granted, what they think is a “good choice” now may look ridiculous in six months, and they do have weak spots (Supporting Actress starlets, maudlin sentiment, Roberto Benigni).

The Globes, on the other hand, are notable for being loose enough to call some pretty deserving winners… and coast some people in on fame alone. When you say, “There’s a big historical epic with Jude Law, Nicole Kidman, and Renée Zellweger,” you can see why Cold Mountain might take on a different weight than it does at other award shows.

Update: AngelDust (Sister Girl, if you read my Livejournal) has added her top two picks in each category as well.

Sidebar: This year, the Oscar nomination ballots had to be in before the Globe winners were announced. This may affect the influence the Globes have this year (see sidebar), although certainly the winners could still affect the next round of voting. But if you do want to compare the last three years, you see this pattern: The Best Picture each time won a similar Globe award. The directors and best actors always differed; the best actresses and screenplays were pretty similar, and the supporting actors were spot-on three years in a row. Keep that in mind--and the different voting circumstances--this year.


Best Motion Picture – Drama
Cold Mountain
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Mystic River
Seabiscuit

Traditionally the HFPA just doesn’t “get” LOTR, but the pileup of the trilogy as a whole may push it over—Return of the King has won over critics’ groups in the last few weeks that I never thought it would. For a while now, though, I’ve thought that Cold Mountain was Golden Globe catnip. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cold Mountain was a spoiler. Just remember I said that. Contrary to Sasha at Oscar Watch, I don’t believe that the HPFA would touch Mystic River with a ten-foot pole—too depressing. On the other hand, Sasha knows what she's talking about, and I... probably don't.
Last year I chose: The Hours.  Winner: The Hours.
AngelDust says: 1. Return of the King. 2. Mystic River.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Cate Blanchett   Veronica Guerin
Nicole Kidman   Cold Mountain
Scarlett Johansson   Girl with a Pearl Earring
Charlize Theron   Monster
Uma Thurman   Kill Bill – Vol. 1 
Evan Rachel Wood   Thirteen

Charlize Theron is a glamour girl
and the anointed front-runner. And she deserves it. Kidman might snaffle it through sheer razzle-dazzle, but if Theron doesn’t win, that thump you hear will be me falling out of my chair. Last year I chose: "Julianne Moore, with Nicole Kidman as an extremely strong second." Winner: Nicole Kidman.
AngelDust says: 1. Charlize Theron. 2 Scarlett Johansson.

 
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama
Russell Crowe   Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Tom Cruise   The Last Samurai
Ben Kingsley   House of Sand and Fog
Jude Law   Cold Mountain
Sean Penn   Mystic River

Like Theron, Sean Penn is the clear front-runner. On the other hand, he’s largely regarded as a troublemaker. If he can keep his mouth shut about Iraq for another month, I think he could take the Oscar. But the Globe… I don’t know that the Globes have as much affection for him as they have for, say, Tom Cruise or even Jude Law. I think that, due to the whims of the HFPA, this one’s more open than it looks.
Last year I chose: Jack Nicholson.  Winner: Jack Nicholson.
AngelDust says: 1. Tom Cruise. 2. Jude Law.
 

Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Bend It Like Beckham
Big Fish
Finding Nemo
Lost in Translation
Love Actually

I could see any of these winning, but really, Finding Nemo was a huge success. I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t win.
Last year I chose: Chicago.  Winner: Chicago.
AngelDust says: 1. Finding Nemo. 2. Lost in Translation.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Jamie Lee Curtis   Freaky Friday
Scarlett Johansson   Lost In Translation
Diane Keaton   Something’s Gotta Give
Diane Lane   Under the Tuscan Sun
Helen Mirren   Calendar Girls

Scarlett Johansson. I can’t see them giving it anyone else, although Sasha says Diane Keaton. I would cross Curtis, Mirren, and Lane off immediately—good performances in good movies, I’m sure, but none of those movies or performances has had the weight that Lost in Translation has had this season. Something’s Gotta Give has had an underwhelming reception, and Johansson’s got the “young starlet” angle working for her. Despite the fact that she will probably get up and make a pretentious speech, the way she did in Venice...
Last year I chose: Renée Zellweger. Winner: Renée Zellweger.
AngelDust says: 1. Scarlett Johansson. 2. Diane Keaton.


Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Jack Black   School of Rock
Johnny Depp   Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
Bill Murray   Lost in Translation
Jack Nicholson   Something’s Gotta Give
Billy Bob Thornton   Bad Santa 
 
I can’t imagine anyone else winning. People love this movie, they love this character, and they love Johnny Depp. Thornton, Black, and Nicholson don’t have much of a shot. Bill Murray does from the sheer strength of his performance and the film itself. Murray is the Posterity Principle. Depp is the Famewhore Principle. Depp wins.
Last year I chose: Richard Gere.  Winner: Richard Gere.
AngelDust says: 1. Johnny Depp. 2. Bill Murray.


Best Foreign Language Film
The Barbarian Invasions (Canada)
Good Bye, Lenin (Germany) 
Monsieur Ibrahim (France)
Osama (Afghanistan) 
The Return (Russia) 

I have no idea. The two I hear mentioned most frequently are The Barbarian Invasions and Good Bye, Lenin. Give me half a point if Lenin wins.
Last year I chose: Talk to Her.  Winner: Talk to Her. (In all fairness, I think this was one of the easiest categories I've ever had to call. Normally I can't call foreign films.)
AngelDust says: 1. Good Bye, Lenin. 2. The Barbarian Invasions.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

Maria Bello   The Cooler
Patricia Clarkson   Pieces of April
Hope Davis   American Splendor
Holly Hunter   Thirteen
Renée Zellweger   Cold Mountain

The Famewhore Principle, plus the fact that Zellweger’s the only performance anyone has really talked about. They might give it to Holly Hunter. Patricia Clarkson was nominated twice at the SAG awards, which says a lot to me about the Oscars, but I don’t see the Globes appreciating her as much.
Last year I chose: Meryl Streep.  Winner: Meryl Streep.
AngelDust says: 1. Renée Zellweger. 2. Maria Bello.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Alec Baldwin   The Cooler
Albert Finney   Big Fish
William H. Macy   Seabiscuit
Tim Robbins   Mystic River
Peter Sarsgaard   Shattered Glass
Ken Watanabe   The Last Samurai

Robbins is simply the strongest name on the list—both the most famous (no? Well, where have
you seen Alec Baldwin lately?) and the most lauded performance. The HFPA can also pat itself on the back for giving something to Mystic River. Last year I chose: Chris Cooper. Winner: Chris Cooper.
AngelDust says: 1. Tim Robbins. 2. Alec Baldwin.
 

Best Director - Motion Picture
Sofia Coppola   Lost in Translation
Clint Eastwood   Mystic River
Peter Jackson   The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Anthony Minghella   Cold Mountain
Peter Weir   Master And Commander: The Far Side of the World
 
If Peter Jackson doesn’t win this—and I mention this purely as an objective observer—there will be riots in the streets.
Last year I chose: Rob Marshall/Stephen Daldry. Winner: Martin Scorsese.
AngelDust says: 1. Peter Jackson. 2. Sofia Coppola.


Best Screenplay - Motion Picture

Sofia Coppola   Lost in Translation
Richard Curtis   Love Actually
Brian Helgeland   Mystic River
Anthony Minghella   Cold Mountain
Jim Sheridan & Naomi Sheridan & Kirsten Sheridan   In America

All good, and I could see any of them winning. In fact, I keep wavering on this one. Sasha says that In America has a very good shot, and it probably does, but… I keep thinking they’ll go for a big name like Mystic River. Maybe Mystic River because, if they vote they way I think they will, they feel guilty. I don’t know.
Last year I chose: Chicago/The Hours. Winner: About Schmidt.
AngelDust says: 1. Sofia Coppola. 2. Richard Curtis.
 

Best Original Score - Motion Picture
Alexandre Desplat  Girl with a Pearl Earring
Danny Elfman  Big Fish
Howard Shore  The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Gabriel Yared  Cold Mountain
Hans Zimmer  The Last Samurai

Amazing score, juggernaut contender.
Last year I chose: Peter Gabriel, Rabbit-Proof Fence ("I have no idea"). Winner: Elliot Goldenthal, Frida.
AngelDust says: 1. Howard Shore. 2. Danny Elfman.
 

Best Original Song - Motion Picture
“The Heart Of Every Girl” – Mona Lisa Smile Music By: Elton John Lyrics By: Bernie Taupin 
“Into The West”—The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King Music & Lyrics By: Howard Shore, Fran Walsh, Annie Lennox 
“Man Of The Hour”—Big Fish Music & Lyrics By: Eddie Vedder
“Time Enough For Tears”—In America Music & Lyrics By: Bono, Gavin Friday And Maurice Seezer 
“You Will Be My Ain True Love”—Cold Mountain Music & Lyrics By: Sting 
 
I have no idea. Sting is a Globe favorite, but I could definitely see them going for Whatever Song The Big Movie Had. Give me half a point if ROTK takes it.
Last year I chose: "The Hands That Built America," U2. Winner: U2.
AngelDust says: 1. Sting. 2. Annie Lennox.

Stay tuned on Sunday for the infamous Daily Digest Play-by-Play!
Globes / Oscars 2001-2003

Best Drama
The Hours / ----------
B. Mind / B. Mind (Best Picture)
Gladiator / Gladiator (Best Picture)

Best Comedy
Chicago / Chicago (Best Picture)
Moulin Rouge / ----------
Almost Famous / ----------

Best Director
Martin Scorsese / Roman Polanski
Robert Altman / Ron Howard
Ang Lee / Steven Soderbergh

Best Actor (Drama)
Jack Nicholson / Adrien Brody
Russell Crowe / Denzel Washington
Tom Hanks / Russell Crowe

Best Actor (Comedy)
Richard Gere / ----------
Gene Hackman / ----------
George Clooney / ----------

Best Actress (Drama)
Nicole Kidman / Nicole Kidman
Sissy Spacek / Halle Berry
Julia Roberts / Julia Roberts

Best Actress (Comedy)
Renée Zellweger / ----------
Nicole Kidman / ----------
Renée Zellweger / ----------

Best S. Actor
Chris Cooper / Chris Cooper
Jim Broadbent / Jim Broadbent
Benicio Del Toro / Benicio Del Toro

Best S. Actress
Meryl Streep / C. Zeta-Jones
Jennifer Connelly / Jennifer Connelly
Kate Hudson / Marcia Gay Harden

Best Screenplay
About Schmidt / Talk to Her, Pianist
B. Mind / Gosford, B. Mind
Traffic / Almost Famous, Traffic

Best Foreign Language Film
Talk to Her* / Nowhere in Africa
No Man's Land / No Man's Land
Crouching Tiger / Crouching Tiger

Best Score
Frida / Frida
Moulin Rouge / FOTR
Gladiator / Crouching Tiger

Best Song
U2 / Eminem
Sting / Randy Newman
Bob Dylan / Bob Dylan


* Was not submitted in the category. Was strong enough to win Best Screenplay, and probably would have won Foreign Film.