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| Oscar Playoffs: Oscar predictions 3/20/03: The Predictions Have you made your picks at the Oscar pool? Send this page to a friend |
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All right. Here we are. As I explained to Correspondent Inky, I was waiting until the last minute because--well, the Scorsese debacle is illustrative: there it was, three or four days before the deadline, and voters who had mailed theirs in early were demanding to get them back so they could strike him off. I was actually waiting until 5 pm Monday to see if anything new broke out--like, you know, Julianne Moore robbing a bank, or Christopher Walken turning out to be a woman, or Nicole Kidman bursting into flame. Fortunately, all Oscar nominees were kind enough to cease all further shenanigans until all the votes were in. And so I am stuck trying to predict what the hell will happen on Oscar night. (Nominees borrowed from Oscar Watch.) Best Picture: Chicago Gangs of New York The Hours Lord of the Rings: Two Towers The Pianist Best Actor: Adrien Brody, The Pianist Nicolas Cage, Adaptation Michael Caine, The Quiet American Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt Best Actress: Salma Hayek, Frida Nicole Kidman, The Hours Diane Lane, Unfaithful Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven Renee Zellweger, Chicago Best Supporting Actor: Chris Cooper, Adaptation Ed Harris, The Hours Paul Newman, Road to Perdition John C. Reilly, Chicago Christopher Walken, Catch Me if You Can Best Supporting Actress: Kathy Bates, About Schmidt Julianne Moore, The Hours Queen Latifah, Chicago Meryl Streep, Adaptation Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago Best Director: Rob Marshall, Chicago Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York Stephen Daldry, The Hours Roman Polanski, The Pianist Pedro Almodovar, Talk to Her Best Screenplay (Original): Todd Haynes, Far From Heaven Pedro Almodovar, Talk to Her Nia Vardalos, My Big Fat Greek Wedding Jay Cocks and Steve Zaillian and Kenneth Lonergan, Gangs of New York Carlos Cuaron and Alfonso Cuaron, Y Tu Mama Tambien Best Screenplay (Adapted): Peter Hedges and Chris Weitz & Paul Weitz, About a Boy Charlie Kaufman and Donald Kaufman, Adaptation Bill Condon, Chicago David Hare, The Hours Ron Harwood, The Pianist Best Animated Film: Lilo and Stitch Ice Age Spirited Away Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron Treasure Planet Best Foreign Film: El Crimen del Padre Amaro Hero The Man without a Past Nowhere in Africa Zuz and Zo Best Documentary Feature: Bowling for Columbine Daughter from Danang Prisoner of Paradise Spellbound Winged Migration Best Original Score: Catch Me if You Can, John Williams Far From Heaven, Elmer Bernstein Frida, Elliot Goldenthal The Hours, Phillip Glass Road to Perdition, Thomas Newman Best Original Song: Frida, "Burn it Blue," Music by Elliot Goldenthal/Lyric by Julie Taymor The Wild Thornberries, "Father and Daughter", Paul Simon Gangs of New York, "The Hands That Built America," U2 Chicago, "I Move On", Music by John Kander, Lyric by Fred Ebb 8 Mile, "Lose Yourself", Eminem Best Cinematography: Dion Beebe, Chicago Edward Lachman, Far From Heaven Michael Ballhaus, Gangs of New York Pawel Edelman, The Pianist Conrad L. Hall, Road to Perdition Best Costume Design: Chicago, Colleen Atwood Frida, Julie Weiss Gangs of New York, Sandy Powell The Hours, Ann Roth The Pianist, Anna Shepard Best Art Direction: Chicago, John Myhre (art), Gord Sim (set) Frida, Felipe Fernandez del Paso (art), Hannia Robledo (set) Gangs of New York, Dante Ferretti (art), Francesca Lo Schiavo (set) LOTR: Two Towers, Grant Major (art), Dan Hennah and Alan Lee (set) The Road to Perdition, Dennis Gassner (art), Nancy Haigh (set) Best Makeup: Frida, John Jackson and Beatrice De Alba The Time Machine, John M. Elliott, Jr. and Barbara Lorenz Best Sound: Chicago, Michael Minkler, Dominick Tavella and David Lee Gangs of New York, Tom Fleischman, Eugene Gearty and Ivan Sharrock LOTR: Two Towers, Christopher Boyes, Michael Semanick, Michael Hedges and Hammond Peek Road to Perdition, Scott Millan, Bob Beemer and John Patrick Pritchett Spider-Man, Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell and Ed Novick Best Film Editing: Martin Walsh, Chicago Thelma Schoonmaker, Gangs of New York Peter Boyle, The Hours Michael Horton, Two Towers Hervé de Luze, The Pianist Sound Editing: Ethan Van der Ryn and Michael Hopkins, Two Towers Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom, Minority Report Scott A. Hecker, Road to Perdition Documentary Short Subject: The Collector of Bedford Street Mighty Times: Legacy of Rosa Parks Twin Towers Why Can't We Be a Family Again? Live - Action Short Film: Fait D'Hiver I'll Wait for the Next One Inja (Dog) Johnny Flynton This Charming Man (Der Er En Yndig Mand) Visual Effects: Spider-Man, John Dykstra, Scott Stokdyk, Anthony LaMolinara and John Frazier LOTR: Two Towers, Jim Rygiel, Joe Letteri, Randall William Cook and Alex Funke Attack of the Clones, Rob Coleman, Pablo Helman, John Knoll and Ben Snow Animated Short Film: The Cathedral The ChubbChubbs! Das Rad Mike's New Car Mt. Head I'll be watching the Oscars at home with Friend of Digest Valerie, and since the Oscars are so universally broadcast, I don't see the need to for a real-time play by play, although you may well see my commentary the next day, particularly considering that this is 1) the 75th ceremony and 2) a highly charged show due to anti-war protests being mounted by the attendees. Of course, this is assuming that it isn't interrupted, postponed, or otherwise obliterated by the war in Iraq. See you on Monday, and don't forget to post your picks in our Oscar pool. |
| Chicago's going to win. As much fun as an upset would be, I cannot even imagine which film could do it. Day-Lewis won the SAG. Nicholson won the Globe, but he also won nearly everything else in creation very early on, and in a repeat trend from last year (think Sissy Spacek), the actors who get over-awarded early on tend to get left out when the final prizes are up for grabs. It's not supposed to be the award for "Most Acting," but sometimes that's how it works out. The only thing that would truly, truly surprise me at this point is if Hayek won, although I can't say she wouldn't deserve it, too. Julianne Moore was the early front runner and will likely succumb to Spacek Syndrome, although she's so hideously overdue for the Oscar (and a double nominee!) that she could also come back strong. Kidman won the BAFTA and a Globe. Zellweger won a Globe and the SAG. A huge cheer went up for Diane Lane at the SAGs. Seriously, folks, I have no clue in hell. I wanted to go with Chris Cooper, but the indefinable buzz of late seems to be for Christopher Walken. I can't explain it. All I know is, Cooper himself admits to voting for Walken. Good enough for me. I'm pretty sure that Catherine Zeta-Jones will take this one--the heat has been for her lately--although Meryl Streep was the longtime frontrunner (and may have gotten over-awarded as a result). Julianne Moore could still slip in. Hell, anything could happen. I don't know. Scorsese? He's gone, over, done, thanks to a deadly combination of William Gold-man's poison pen, his own gladhanding Goodwill Tour, and the coup de grace, the Miramax/Robert Wise scandal, which put the previous two elements into horrible perspective. When people are actually demanding for their ballots back, you have a problem, unless enough people voted for you before the ad scandal hit. But Marshall? I fear for the safety of this great nation if Rob Marshall does not win. Clearly his intergalactic minions will arrive within moments of some other poor schmuck accepting the ultimate prize, and all hell will break loose. Of course, this would be great television. Word on the street favors Far from Heaven. I got nothin'. God, I hate how screwed up the categories are this year. Half the screenplays in each category need to be switched over to the other. That said, I seem to remember The Hours winning the Writers Guild Award. I want Spirited Away to win so bad that it hurts. I am afraid that Lilo and Stitch will win only because Disney, which even distributes Spirited Away, is treating Miyazaki's film like a redheaded stepchild in order to help its own offspring win. But, as Sasha said, "I can't bring myself to predict anything else and I don't mind being wrong." I'm just saying, when L&S wins, don't be surprised. Just my guess, based on previous awards I've seen. Now, Michael Moore is alleging that Sony is keeping people from seeing Winged Migration, because you can only vote if you've seen all of the documentary nominees, and this supposedly favors Winged Migration (given who was allowed to see it, I guess). Ironically, I'm hearing that Prisoner of Paradise is the next most likely after Bowling for Columbine to win, so who knows? This is rather like my Spirited Away dilemma, so I'm going to be voting for Columbine. I'm just saying, now you know why it might not win, despite winning an unprecedented Writers Guild Award. I don't know. I hear Elmer Bernstein is overdue. Again, I am well and truly torn by this one. Normally I would say U2, but I'm wondering if Kander and Ebb won't benefit from an overall Chicago sweep. Eminem probably deserves it, but he wouldn't get the votes in a thousand years. Not only is Conrad L. Hall a master, but also recently deceased. Not to be crude, but this improves his chances greatly. Chicago recently won at the costume and hairstyling guild awards; otherwise I might have picked a more exotic candidate like Gangs of New York or Frida. My heart is with Two Towers, but TTT is suffering this year from a "been there, done that" attitude. I hear the Academy is rather in awe of GONY building a scale replica of old-time New York in Rome. So there's that. My God, if Frida doesn't win for this already-blinkered category, I will be officially convinced that a conspiracy is afoot. Picking Best Sound for a musical is an easy choice. Chicago could definitely benefit from a sweep. I hear that GONY has a good shot at this one, though. Two Towers. Why not? (We're getting into serious "What's this category mean again?" territory here.) As a documentary subject, I suspect "World Trade Center" is the new "Holocaust": poignant, wrenching, and unbeatable. I hear that Johnny Flynton has an honest edge, but it was filmed in Birmingham, so I have a sentimental attachment to it anyway. In a world of chaos, it is nice to have one sure thing. Film Jerk says The Cathedral. Others are saying ChubbChubbs. I think, though, that not only was Mike's New Car the most popular, but there's also a feeling of guilt that Monsters, Inc. didn't win last year that Mike could benefit from. |